Companies pursuing pediatric priority review vouchers can deliver higher ROI to investors.
First, the regulatory bar is often lower for pediatric rare disease indications because the unmet medical need is often extremely high. The diseases are often devastating, and the patients are children. This often leads the regulatory agencies to accept very small data sets, with less rigorous endpoints, and lower study design requirements.
For example, the study may include only a couple dozen patients, and not even have a placebo cohort. This means that 1) the cost of the development programs can be lower, 2) timeline for development may be shorter, 3) the probability of regulatory success and ultimate approval may be higher. All of these can amplify returns.
Second, the PRV is awarded upon approval. This means that the company can monetize the PRV soon after approval, rather than waiting until the revenues climb toward peak sales. The time value of PRV is very high and amplifies the returns. A PRV that is sold for $200M immediately after approval is worth considerably more than $200M in net profits 5 or 6 years after launch.
Third, there is typically less competition for pediatric rare diseases. Unlike larger indications, drugs for rare pediatric diseases often don’t face competition. Furthermore, there is usually regulatory protection from competition for orphan diseases for a period of time.
Counterbalancing the above, there are some potential disadvantages and risks associated with pediatric PRV approach.
First, the clinical trials may be difficult to enroll because of the rarity of the disease and because trials in children are more difficult to conduct. Second, PRV legislation can expire or be rescinded, posing some regulatory risk. Third, the commercial market may be much smaller than for other diseases.
However, with the current pricing trends for rare diseases, with some drugs being priced at hundreds of thousands of dollars, the commercial potential for many of the rare pediatric diseases may be larger than might be initially imagined. Furthermore, a drug that can be used for both pediatric and adult diseases can often qualify for pediatric PRVs, so long as there is a legitimate need in the pediatric population. In other words, the PRV is not restricted to drugs that can only be used in children.
So while the investment thesis should be evaluated on a case by case basis, the pediatric PRV program can offer investors an opportunity to amplify returns in many instances.
Richard Chin
CEO at KindredBio